For most of us, gambling on sports is not entirely legal. But that doesn’t stop us from discussing hypothetical situations. For instance, let’s say you drive down to your local sports bar the day before Thanksgiving and you ask them for a parlay card. The cops know about them, hell some of them even play. Feel the hypothetical rush as you pick winners, losers, overs, and unders! Suddenly, turkey day is more exciting than ever! Holy crap, your team is covering! You’re high fiving Aunt Janet! You’re winning money! It’s so easy! Pass the corn! Yay gambling!
Potential side effects: losing all of your goddamn money.
This is quite possibly the most compelling day of Thanksgiving football in recent memory; either that I’m just exaggerating like everyone else that discusses football on the internet. Regardless, here are my gambling thoughts on the day’s games.
Take the over in Green Bay/Detroit – The Packers are favored by 6 points, and while I’m not willing to touch that bet there is still money to be made in this game. 56 is a big number, but these two teams score a lot of points (they each average over 30) and their defenses have had issues at times this season. Combine that with the fact that the game is indoors and this bet seems like a pretty good idea. Even if the Lions offense struggles against some of Dom Capers’ trap defenses that could very well mean that Stafford throws 3 picks and GB turns them all into touchdowns. So, points. I was going to lay out a scenario where Aaron Rodgers struggles, but I don’t have that good of an imagination! Yes I’m trying to create a world where Packer fans become as unbearable as Patriots fans.
Dolphins (+7) against the Cowboys – During pregame warm-ups expect team captains to share a good laugh about how badly they’ve each beaten the Bills the last few weeks, but then its down to business. Expect Dallas to score a long touchdown to Dez Bryant on the first possession and then go dormant for a while as is their usual protocol lately. But then the Dolphins are going to transport us all into a magical dimension where Matt Moore is a good QB, Reggie Bush is a quality NFL running back, and Brandon Marshall doesn’t act like a big time jackass all the time. The Dolphins are even talking playoffs now, isn’t that cute! Anyway, I still think the Cowboys win this game but look for a late touchdown to make it close. On a side note, doesn’t Jason Garrett look like a Cub Scout leader? He definitely wouldn’t have fit in when Charles Haley was taking his dick out all the time.
Baltimore (-3) to cover against the Niners – First of all, I’m truly shocked it took our sports media this long to coin the term “Harbowl” for this game. One of the more popular narratives going into this one is that the Ravens are inconsistent, and while that is true they still have not lost at home. At first this line gave me the creeps because the number is so small, almost makes me feel like Vegas knows something I don’t (which they usually do) but then I remembered how good the 49ers are and I felt better. The younger Harbaugh has them playing at a level that week in and week out makes more and more people believers, but this is their toughest game of the year and it just feels like its time for them to drop one. Yes, how’s that for analysis? “Just feels like its time”. You’re welcome! Going from a home game in California to a road game in Maryland with only 3 days of preparation is pretty brutal as well. Older brother wins by ten and gives Jim a noogie instead of a handshake.
Happy Holidays, and good luck!
Posted by Ben Van Iten.